2021-2022 Real Estate Re-Cap and Forecast Uncovers "Billion Dollar Opportunity" for Savy Investor!
2021-2022 Real Estate Re-Cap and Forecast Uncovers Another Billion Dollar Opportunity for Savy Investor!
Just got done to an interview with another friend of mine in regard to kind of like a forecast of what's the outlook for 2022. What do you think Sean, what's going on? What do you think with between COVID and between interest rate hikes between shadow inventory and all that stuff? You know, what do you thinks gonna happen in 2022? Where do you think that the opportunities are gonna be and where can we find a billion dollar opportunity to make some money in the market?
Welcome to billion dollar blind spots, where we help businesses and individuals recognize and capitalize on the billion dollar blind spots in life and business. Listen in as bestselling author shanty chais uncovers the not so obvious billion dollar blind spots in various businesses. Industries and markets shall is the co-founder of RI squared consulting, where he specializes in creating proprietary platform, strategies and systems to capitalize on changing markets and services. By combining more than three decades of practical tactical experience with modern day artificial behavioral intelligence, we can discover and deliver the really intelligent information to change their lives and business
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In buddy, Sean shall hosting billion dollar blind spots. Welcome back. It is December 21st, I just had a 2012, just got done to an interview with another friend of mine in regard to kind of like a forecast of what's the outlook for 2022. What do you think Sean, what's going on? What do you think with between COVID and between interest rate hikes between shadow inventory and all that stuff? You, what do you thinks gonna happen in 2022? Where do you think that the opportunities are gonna be and where can we find a billion dollar opportunity to make some money in the market? In some cases we're talking to major hedge funds, major real estate, investment trusts, private portfolio managers. We're talking to the investor that owns one or two of investment properties are talking to guy who has his personal house down the street from me or my house.
And some cases that house, maybe 300,000, in other cases, it could be three or 4 million for their personal residents. They own two or three other houses. So, you know, there is a concern. Do you want to know what the market is doing and how to play the market going forward? And the smarter investors they're looking to see if there's an opportunity about to happen or has it already happened? So in order to kind of go forward, we gotta go backwards. First. We gotta kind at what's going on out there and what's been going on. So right now we have another variation of COVID is happening and it's actually, they just shut down some of the shows in New York city, Saturday night live actually shut down. They did the whole, they did the show virtually, which I didn't even realize this week. So that's a sign that this is coming around again.
We also have the fed chairman telegraphing that they're gonna be doing anywhere between to three interest rate hikes over the next 12 months. In 2022, we have a bunch of political unrest with the Democrats and Republicans fighting over tax bills and fighting over different plans and everything else, president, Biden's talking about huge interest rate hikes for capital gains. And so what do we see and where is the opportunity gonna be and where, what is the forecast? First of all, once we look backwards and we look at the forecast, then we can actually look for the opportunity in the forecast. So let's back up for a second. I wanna just kind of back you guys up a little bit and do a history repeats itself, obviously, especially in the real estate business and the real estate business. You've heard me say this hundreds of times, the real estate business repeats itself off anywhere eight to 12 years in a row.
It goes on a cycle. And right now we're in a pretty much an up cycle. You know, the market is taking off like a rocket again, but it is starting to stabilize. We are starting to see prices come back in line with the market. We're starting to see properties that are expiring on sold, which means that they were overpriced or that just didn't sell. For some reason, we're seeing people negotiate again on home sales, on and on home properties. They go to purchase 'em and they do a home inspection and there's things wrong with it. Instead of buying the house on the blind, as they say, without even seeing it, where we were having people from New York city, actually buying houses without doing a home inspection and closing without even seeing the property, they just wanted to get out of the city that bad. But now we're actually seeing people going back to normal.
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We're going back into a pseudo normal market. If you will, we'll see how long that lasts with the new COVID variant. I'm gonna back you up a little bit. I want to go back to 2008. So in 2008, when we worked in that market and you know, I'm not a genius, but I've been in the real estate business since 1996, I started in 1988. I actually got involved in the real estate business in the construction side. I ended up going in the south side in 1996, after developing a patent on a bicycle walk, my buddy said, you know, everybody in town, you guys, you should sell real estate. He goes, you can make a lot of money. My mom does it and she stinks that and she makes a ton. I did get involved in real estate. Thank God for my friend, Matt, and found my, you know, my calling.
So 2008 comes around, you know, the market is flying up into that point. I open a real estate office and literally about a month after I opened a real estate office, bam, you know, the financial debacle of 2008 and nine happens. We have a bit, a bunch of what I I'm gonna call commercial mortgage back securities. We find out that there really was no security in it. The properties that they had told them that there was a value in were really not, they were overvalued over appraised. People were getting loan homes of like for a million dollars on an income of a hundred thousand dollars. You know? And I still remember telling a friend of mine, who's a brilliant guy, has a quantitative analytics degree from MIT. And when we were selling his house 2007, he said, Sean, you sure this is the top of the market.
And I said, Paul, I see guys getting loans for 1.5 million with 3% down and no job, no income and no assets. And I mean, honest to God, they're getting a loan for that. And it's Phantom money. It's just ridiculous that this can't keep going ironically enough, a year later, the market imploded. And I, you know, I thought to myself like Christ, you have a quantitative analytic degree from one of the best schools in the country and you work on wall street and you're missing this blind spot. Like, is this that much of a hole in the market? And you know what it really was because unless you're pulse on the market, you really don't see the storm coming across the beach. But if you're a local in New Jersey and you're sitting on the beach and you're watching the rain come in, you could see it coming across the ocean miles away.
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But if you're a tourist, you're really not looking for it. And you really don't know you don't, you didn't notice that, Hey, well, wait a minute. You know that the temperature changed a little bit. They got a little moisture in the air what's going on. And then you look up across the ocean. You could see the storm coming. So in 2008 we saw the storm coming. We just ignored it. Interest rates were, you know, at that time they were at about a 6.2, 6.5% unemployment after 2008 is when up 10%. So from a norm 4%, it went up to 10%. That's almost double what it normally is. Sales in the real estate market went from 7.2 million down to 3.8 million, literally overnight. Literally I can remember opening my office. And literally the first day I got the sheets for the multiple listing service. And it said, okay, you know, Sean, out of 180 companies, your number 92.
And I was like, I was so excited to get that report. It was like a nine page report. And they sent to you by fax. So the following month I knew that it came out on the 15th of the month. I run to my office. I get there. It's like six o'clock in the morning. I'm standing at the fax machine, like a little kid waiting for the candy to come through the machine and come page nine, 10. I'm waiting for page 11 and 12, 11 and 12 don't come. I look at the report, thank God. My small company of like seven people went from 90 to number like 40 or something like that of 180 companies. And then I went to go look and it really wasn't 180 companies anymore. It was 140. It really, what happened was I called the multiple listing services, said that a woman over there I go, Hey bill.
You know, I didn't get the last two pay ages with the other companies on there. She goes, Sean, those companies went out of business last month. Are, are you paying attention or what's going on out there? I was like, holy crap. So literally it decimated 40 companies out of 180 companies, literally in 30 days, just as a result of the market. You know, the sales went from 7.2 million to 3.8 million. The sale prices also went it almost in half exponentially. And at that point, the government said, oh my God, we need to do something. And they threw out what I'm gonna call a life preserver. They threw out the life jacket was called memorandums. And what the memorandums were designed to do was to actually stop banks and financial institutions from foreclosing on people that were in distress situations, where they hadn't made a mortgage payment for 30, 60, 90 days ex that, that, you know, normally we would know about that because after 60 days the bank would file Liz penance with a court would file a would a judge and or a, you know, a attorney firm.
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They would file a letter called the Liz penance, which actually notifies both the owner of the property, but also notifies the investor of the instrument, which is, you know, the commercial mortgage back security for lack of a better word. Or I AIG at that time who owned a lot of the insurance. And a lot of our primary mortgage insurance was backed by a company called AIG who also almost went bankrupt during 2008 and nine. So these companies actually thought that they had a fairly solid investment. It turns out though that there was more than 800,000 to a million properties. I'm gonna say that again, 800,000 to a million properties and bear in mind at that time, there was only 4 million properties being sold. So that was 25% of the market was either distressed or in what they called the shadow inventory. And the challenge was the financial institutions, unless they really went digging.
The general public had no idea that these properties were out there and they were distressed. And ultimately what happened was once we started to go back to norm more like 2009, 2010, they actually, the government pulled back their memorandums and allowed the banks to now go into a foreclosure process. They did warn them and they tried to say, oh, Hey, you should give these people some kind of vehicle out other than just foreclosing on them. So a lot of them were restructured loans. They took the payments, they put 'em on the back of a 30 year loan and turned it into a, a 35 year loan or something like that. But at the end of the day, there was a tremendous amount of properties that were sold that came into the market as distressed properties over the next six months. How much did that affect the market?
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10%. So the market actually went dipped another additional 10% from 3.8, nine to three point like 5 million of properties in the market. So, you know, and that's just a function of supply and demand. All of a sudden, you go into a market where you had 15 properties for every one buyer to now having 20 to 25 properties for every one buyer. Of course the market is gonna take a no dive during the, you know, bear in mind during the same period of time, the government took interest rates from six and a quarter percent, 2008, they out to about four and a quarter. So they dropped it almost 2% over a two year period, almost three years. And then ultimately when they pulled it back again and the shadow inventory came into the market, they went from four and a quarter down to three and a half and three and a quarter at some of the lowest points.
We even saw rates as low as 3% in 2014, 2013. So, you know, now it's fast forward a little bit and let's look at to a seasonal or, or what I'm gonna call a cyclical trend, which is in the real estate business. It's an eight to 10 year cycle. That real real estate typically will cycle from what they call peak to peak or from top to bottom. So you're gonna go from 2008 to 2010 years later, 2018, what's gonna normally happen. You know what? In 2018, the market started us soften up, but interest rates were at for were in a quarter and the federal government came out and said, oh, wait a minute. You know, let's see, let's see what we can do. So all of a sudden they went, they actually started raising interest rates and they started raising 'em pretty rapidly in between 2018 and 2019.
They actually raised rates almost three quarters or percent in less than a year. So what happens when you're raise rates that quickly in a market where you're still just hovering, just getting back on your feet. I mean, literally it imploded the market. And on top of that, we were in a time when, remember I said market cycles every 10 years or so, 2008 plus 10 years is 2018, right on the money. We were actually anticipating the market to soften up, which it was doing now, all of a sudden the fed actually pushes on their interest rates and raises them up to quarters of percent. Literally every quarter, they raised at another quarter of a percent over three quarter period, say what you will about Donald Trump. But the one thing he does know is real estate and, and real estate housing and residential housing. He was actually out on the front lawn, screaming and hollering at the federal chairman saying, what are you doing?
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You're gonna implode the market. The reality is they did. They really did implode the market. It went to a standstill. It actually stole the market, but went to a standstill in, in 2019, they woke up and they said, oh, wait a second. You know, we made a mistake, let's start pulling rates back down again, between late 2018 to 2019, they bring the rates back down from about a 5% at the peak of it all, just over 5% back down to about a four and eighth, four and a quarter was about the rate that you ended up seeing. So now all of a sudden, we're starting to go back into a normal market. It's 2000 thousand 19, we're cruising along. And then bam, we have COVID COVID sets in the market, goes upside down. People are really scared to help. They're scared to death. They really don't know what to do.
They don't know what's going on in the first quarter of 2021, unemployment went from 3.8 to 15.5%. I'm gonna say that again in literally in a quarter, in less than three months, our actual unemployment rate went from 3.8 to 15.5%. Now, I don't know if you remember what I said, but in 2008 we saw unemployment go down. We saw unemployment raise and it raised quite a bit, but it wasn't really 300% now, you know, to go from 4%, which is normal to about a 10%, that's a pretty big swing. It actually went up a hundred percent, a little more than a hundred percent, probably 125%. This time around, we went up 300%. So what do you think happens when not many people are outta work? Of course they're having problems with not having jobs, not gonna be able to pay their bills. A government steps in, again, throws out the life preserver this time.
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Not only did they throw out the life preserver to stop the federal banks and the financial institutions from actually foreclosing on, on these people. But they also threw the money. They threw a lot of money at them. And really what was happening was people were getting paid more money to stay home than they were when they were working. So they really had no interest in going back to work. And when they did had say, they can finally go back to work. A lot of 'em said, screw, we're not going back to work. And right now, if you go into, like, we went into a restaurants in lake George over the summer, do you know that we were in a restaurant that normally would hold 300 people for dinner on a Thursday night? The funny thing was, there was probably 30 people out front and a line.
There was 15 people inside at tables. And I walked up to a woman in ice said, you know, let me ask you a question. Like, can you get us a table for 12? And she said, oh my God, no way. You know, there, there's no way we can do that. And I said, well, what about three tables of four? And she goes, sir, look around here. And I go, yeah, she goes, I'm the hostess. I have two people in my kitchen and I have two people that are servicing this entire restaurant, including me when I'm not at this table, helping you, she goes, there is no way in hell we, it can accommodate your party. I really apologize for that. So that was the theme. There was restaurants that should have been open that, that were closed because they just couldn't find the people to actually Mann the tables to work.
There was no labor force out there to work. So all of a sudden we start to see unemployment. We start to see COVID kind of be heat, get their arms around it a little bit. We start to see people going back to work a little bit late in 2020, 2021. Just before that, though, what happens to the real estate market? People are afraid to sell their house, cuz they don't know where they're going. People that are living in a house are afraid to leave their house. People that wanna sell their house, don't wanna sell that don't wanna let somebody in their house to show it. So ultimately what happens and now you have people that are in high density areas like in the tri-state area, in New York, where we have ridiculous amount of people per square foot. And then you go into New York city where people are living on top of each other and you have the scare of probably one of the, the largest pandemics since the black plague, if I'm not mistaken.
And so you have people that are trying to get outta New York city and trying to buy a place out in the country, away from people. The challenge is there's no inventory. So remember when I said 2008, there was one buyer that was qualified to buy a home for every 15 homes that were in the market. Reverse that in 2021, 2019,
Transcript
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ast of what's the outlook for:Welcome to billion dollar blind spots, where we help businesses and individuals recognize and capitalize on the billion dollar blind spots in life and business. Listen in as bestselling author shanty chais uncovers the not so obvious billion dollar blind spots in various businesses. Industries and markets shall is the co-founder of RI squared consulting, where he specializes in creating proprietary platform, strategies and systems to capitalize on changing markets and services. By combining more than three decades of practical tactical experience with modern day artificial behavioral intelligence, we can discover and deliver the really intelligent information to change their lives and business
st, I just had a:And some cases that house, maybe 300,000, in other cases, it could be three or 4 million for their personal residents. They own two or three other houses. So, you know, there is a concern. Do you want to know what the market is doing and how to play the market going forward? And the smarter investors they're looking to see if there's an opportunity about to happen or has it already happened? So in order to kind of go forward, we gotta go backwards. First. We gotta kind at what's going on out there and what's been going on. So right now we have another variation of COVID is happening and it's actually, they just shut down some of the shows in New York city, Saturday night live actually shut down. They did the whole, they did the show virtually, which I didn't even realize this week. So that's a sign that this is coming around again.
months. In:It goes on a cycle. And right now we're in a pretty much an up cycle. You know, the market is taking off like a rocket again, but it is starting to stabilize. We are starting to see prices come back in line with the market. We're starting to see properties that are expiring on sold, which means that they were overpriced or that just didn't sell. For some reason, we're seeing people negotiate again on home sales, on and on home properties. They go to purchase 'em and they do a home inspection and there's things wrong with it. Instead of buying the house on the blind, as they say, without even seeing it, where we were having people from New York city, actually buying houses without doing a home inspection and closing without even seeing the property, they just wanted to get out of the city that bad. But now we're actually seeing people going back to normal.
tle bit. I want to go back to: So:And I said, Paul, I see guys getting loans for 1.5 million with 3% down and no job, no income and no assets. And I mean, honest to God, they're getting a loan for that. And it's Phantom money. It's just ridiculous that this can't keep going ironically enough, a year later, the market imploded. And I, you know, I thought to myself like Christ, you have a quantitative analytic degree from one of the best schools in the country and you work on wall street and you're missing this blind spot. Like, is this that much of a hole in the market? And you know what it really was because unless you're pulse on the market, you really don't see the storm coming across the beach. But if you're a local in New Jersey and you're sitting on the beach and you're watching the rain come in, you could see it coming across the ocean miles away.
d see the storm coming. So in:And I was like, I was so excited to get that report. It was like a nine page report. And they sent to you by fax. So the following month I knew that it came out on the 15th of the month. I run to my office. I get there. It's like six o'clock in the morning. I'm standing at the fax machine, like a little kid waiting for the candy to come through the machine and come page nine, 10. I'm waiting for page 11 and 12, 11 and 12 don't come. I look at the report, thank God. My small company of like seven people went from 90 to number like 40 or something like that of 180 companies. And then I went to go look and it really wasn't 180 companies anymore. It was 140. It really, what happened was I called the multiple listing services, said that a woman over there I go, Hey bill.
You know, I didn't get the last two pay ages with the other companies on there. She goes, Sean, those companies went out of business last month. Are, are you paying attention or what's going on out there? I was like, holy crap. So literally it decimated 40 companies out of 180 companies, literally in 30 days, just as a result of the market. You know, the sales went from 7.2 million to 3.8 million. The sale prices also went it almost in half exponentially. And at that point, the government said, oh my God, we need to do something. And they threw out what I'm gonna call a life preserver. They threw out the life jacket was called memorandums. And what the memorandums were designed to do was to actually stop banks and financial institutions from foreclosing on people that were in distress situations, where they hadn't made a mortgage payment for 30, 60, 90 days ex that, that, you know, normally we would know about that because after 60 days the bank would file Liz penance with a court would file a would a judge and or a, you know, a attorney firm.
o almost went bankrupt during: to go back to norm more like: om six and a quarter percent,: % in: years or so,: t went to a standstill in, in: ng on in the first quarter of:Not only did they throw out the life preserver to stop the federal banks and the financial institutions from actually foreclosing on, on these people. But they also threw the money. They threw a lot of money at them. And really what was happening was people were getting paid more money to stay home than they were when they were working. So they really had no interest in going back to work. And when they did had say, they can finally go back to work. A lot of 'em said, screw, we're not going back to work. And right now, if you go into, like, we went into a restaurants in lake George over the summer, do you know that we were in a restaurant that normally would hold 300 people for dinner on a Thursday night? The funny thing was, there was probably 30 people out front and a line.
There was 15 people inside at tables. And I walked up to a woman in ice said, you know, let me ask you a question. Like, can you get us a table for 12? And she said, oh my God, no way. You know, there, there's no way we can do that. And I said, well, what about three tables of four? And she goes, sir, look around here. And I go, yeah, she goes, I'm the hostess. I have two people in my kitchen and I have two people that are servicing this entire restaurant, including me when I'm not at this table, helping you, she goes, there is no way in hell we, it can accommodate your party. I really apologize for that. So that was the theme. There was restaurants that should have been open that, that were closed because they just couldn't find the people to actually Mann the tables to work.
to work a little bit late in: tory. So remember when I said:But yet there was properties that were flying off the shelf, which were the properties between 300 and 500,000. So what did we do during COVID 19? One of the first things we did, we sat down, we took out a whiteboard and we figured out how much of the real estate process needed to be done in person. And how much of the process could we do virtually? What we really learned was the vast majority of the process could be done virtually. We really only needed to get in the house maybe once, maybe twice to let somebody in there. And then we opened the doors, opened the windows we got in our hazmat suits and we showed the property. And what's interesting is what we figured out very quickly was even though properties between our normal market, which would've been 800,000 or up wasn't turning over or wasn't selling for the most part that's because those people were in between.
They didn't, they were going back to work. They didn't know if they were gonna work. They didn't know if they had jobs. I mean, literally people were on the sidelines, just wondering what was gonna happen if they were gonna get back in the game again. But yet the people that were working were the front liners, the people that were the policemen, the firemen, the, the paramedics, the nurses, the doctors, anybody that was on the front line was actually not only were they working, but they were working triples shifts, they were working massive amounts of overtime and they had wads of cash and they had no place to spend it. So what was happening was we figured out very quickly that if we could get properties between 300 and 500, now bear in mind, interest rates are at 3%, but an interest rate at 3%, you can actually buy a three to $500,000 house with $120,000 income.
If you talk to a front liner that normally 75, $80,000, how much do they make when they are making overtime, but 120, if they have a spouse that stays at home with their kids and they maybe are a school teacher or something like that. In many cases, that household income is anywhere between a hundred and 150,000. So those are the people that were buying home. So we shifted our focus to that billion dollar blind spot. If you will, if we had just kept on focusing what we normally did, we would've went out of business like everybody else. And actually during that period of time, my team and I, we did more business than most companies did for the entire year or during a six month period because we actually shifted to the market as opposed to letting the market dictate what was gonna happen to our business.
st,:When they raised interest rates of three quarter, you know, three quarters of percent, less than a year, they realized they made a mistake and they actually jump started and took out the jumper cables, put it on there and jump started the market by pushing the rates down, not 1%, but almost two full percentage points over the next year. And that actually buoyed up the market. And then with the COVID effect is what we're gonna to call it. Not only did it buoy up the market, it actually put it on steroids and made the market take off like a rocket. So now that we're stabilizing, where do we see the market going as we go forward? I mean, yeah, we have another COVID variation happening, but I think now we're getting conditioned to it. And even though it's a terrible thing that's happening, I think we're in front of it.
And we're starting to see that we have some kind of, not a cure for it, but we do have treatments for it. And we can get in front of it is the variant that's out there now, probably more aggressive than the other ones. According to the news, it is. According to the news, this variant is actually happening in transmitted vari, you know, far more far quicker than the, the original COVID 19 variant. So where do we see the market and what do you see? What do you think the forecast is Sean moving forward? Well, let's look at this for, from a of, we have a market that's settling down. We had a market that went straight through the roof where people were paying 15 to 20% more than a property's worth because they wanted to get out of their environment and get into a new environment.
is coming out saying, Hey, in:Right now our sales are at 6.5%. We're expecting 6.8 by the end of the year, maybe 7 million properties sold in the United States. But unemployment went up to 300%. And a lot of those people, even though the, the unemployment record radio the rector says, yeah, we're back to a normal 4%. When you go into a restaurant, you go into any restaurant, you go into any bodega, you go into any gas station. They can't find people that work there help on signs all over the place. And that's because those are the people that work off the books or work in cash. And they're actually in the back end of the market that nobody sees them. They're playing to the radar and they're like the shadow employment number. If you want to call it, that never thought of it that way. But it really is. So now you have all these people that are still outta work.
They don't want to go back to work because they're collecting unemployment. They got used to it. They already banged up their credit. They don't care about paying their mortgage. So now I'm anticipating that if we had a 300% increase in unemployment, just a hundred percent more than we did last time would not be unlikely to see 1.2 to 1.5 million homes of that 6,000,007 million homes be in the shadow inventory and be distressed properties over the next six to 12 months. When are we anticipating that happening? The Fed's talking about raising rates first quarter, second quarter, third quarter. We're anticipating that the memorandums are gonna get lifted somewhere between February and March. That's gonna be the same time as they're gonna be pushing on interest rates. They're gonna be pushing on both ends. The market has no result, but go down and am I saying, it's gonna take a nose dive.
No, but I do think that there is gonna be an opportunity for smart investors, smart hedge funds, real state investment trusts that are waiting and have cash, stockpile, cash waiting for opportunities. Cuz I believe that at least in the residential market, you're gonna see anywhere between a million to a million and a half of distressed properties, be introduced to the market over the next six to 12 months. In addition, you remember all those sticks and bricks. You remember all those people that we've all worked with in all the people that we've talked to and that own small businesses or medium sized businesses, you know, the people that are old school and they said, Hey, oh my God, I can never operate my business virtually. I have to be there in person. My brother, who's a stock broker. I have to be in the office because I have to be in Cofer my quote on, Hey, my God bless him.
I mean, I get it. It makes sense. But the reality is even those people learned how to operate a business outside of the norm. They figured out that they can work virtually in a lot of these companies over the past 12, 24 months, actually recondition themselves to believe that, you know what? I have a neighbor that is a chief operating officer at a major engineering firm. And he said, you know, Sean, we were gonna purchase another building and put in 40 desks for draftsman and people, engineers and stuff like that to have in office. And I realized that, you know, they don't need to be in the office. It's not even just the office space, but it's the desk. It's the office space. It's the computers, it's the software, it's the licenses. It's the, the fax hub, the communications hub. It's the networks. It's all that stuff.
And now they figured out that:So where is the opportunity? Where is the billion dollar bond spot? I mean, let's look at the first one, the obvious one, if you're somebody that is gonna buy bonds or you're an investor conservative investor and you're buying and selling stocks and bonds, if you're on the bond side and you're buying more conservative instruments and stuff like that, I mean, I'd be looking at interest rates rising. I'd also be looking at REITs and investment trust. I'd be looking at housing stocks, you know, de Halton, tall brothers, Venia PTE homes, Dell web, all those companies. I believe that you're gonna see them start to that market. Start to soften up a little bit and that's probably gonna take place in the next 12 to 18 months. I think also I would take a really close look at any kind of rates or publicly held or privately held portfolios that have a large amounts of mid to large size office space in it.
I believe that, you know, like when I drive down main street in, in the center in town, you know, those stores have changed hands so many times right now. And really what they're doing is they're changing from delivering products to delivering services. So we didn't even discuss Amazon for Christ. X has changed with the way people operate and about the way people shop. I mean it's Christmas time. I haven't stepped foot in a store. I don't think my wife has either, but we've done all our Christmas shopping. And you know, what's funny is, I mean, I'm the last minute guy and your typical, you know, male show in this guy who, I'm not a male show in this pig. I'm the only man in the house with a dog or a female dog in my two girl roles with my wife. So, and I was raised by two women.
So my, my mom and my sister, God bless her soul. You know, at the end of the day, our lives has changed and it hasn't only changed from COVID COVID has really put in the magnifying glass on the way we operate and do a lot of things like the virtual, you know, getting your groceries delivered to your house. And you know, it changes the environment for the real estate environment. It also changed the environment for the way we do business. Like I would be looking at businesses that are clearing houses for, you know, the consumers money. I remember I worked for a guy who was American express and they were working on the PayPal equivalent and he actually left American express cuz he figured out that they just really couldn't get their arms around it. And he ended up going, worked with PayPal because they were on the forefront of it.
And the reality is companies like PayPal Stripe, those companies that are, that are actually accepting credit card payments virtually and stuff like that. Venmo, all the small companies, they're gonna be a huge players going forward. You know? And I think from the real estate side, if you're a small guy and you want to get involved in the real estate business, if you took some equity outta your house, put it on the sidelines, waited another three to six months, you're gonna see opportunities show up. And here's another, here's another play also. Let's say you're getting ready to retire in the next five to seven years. And you're thinking you wanna go to Florida, you're think you wanna go to the Jersey shore. So what do you do is your property's at an all time high right now? So go to the bank, get an equity line credit, pull the equity line out of your property.
Go find, go wait six months to a year for properties, decrease in value as a result of the market like we're talking about in the market where you wanna move to find the property down there, purchase that property with the equity from the house and then rent that property for the next three to five years until you're ready to move there. And ideally if you're buying a cash, there's a good chance that you're gonna make a positive for are on your investment. And what's interesting is let's just say for arguments sake, you have 50% equity in your home right now and your home is north of a million dollars. So you have a half, a million dollars sitting in your house. It's getting zero interest and paying zero interest. So why not put it to work for you if you can borrow it at 4% or three and a quarter percent, okay.
And then take that money, buy, purchase a home that you're gonna move to eventually when you downsize outta your present home and you're gonna buy that home at a discount in the discount, in the discount and market, you're gonna purchase it. And you're gonna use money at three and a quarter percent and you're gonna get, let's say an eight to a 10% return on rent after taxes. You're gonna get about eight to 10% return on investment cash on cash. That's you're doubling Ling your money and you own the asset. And typically if we look at properties over a 10 year period, in most cases, even though the market fluctuates, like we said, 10% when the act of market is, is fluctuating, whether you're thinking of buying or selling, what's interesting is over a 10 year period in most cases that property's gonna appreciate anywhere between 10 to 20 to 30% over that same period.
So long term, that is a huge billion dollar blind spot, but it's Al it's also a lifestyle, you know, thing that you're gonna do anyway. So why not do it while the market is on fire? How do you capitalize on the billion dollar blind spot with the market going straight up in your property value, huge, take out some of the equity, find the house you want to buy. Sit on the silence, wait for the market, adjust over the next three to six months. When it adjusts purchase that home in a discount. If it doesn't adjust, don't use the money, leave it, sit there, just have the access to the money. So I think, you know, we just talked about a bunch of different opportunities and I think, you know, realistically the real estate market is always a place to invest in a invest in money, but it's not, it's not always a play.
at I think we're gonna see in:And I gotta give him a shout out is a guy named Ron brown, old school investor. I still remember Ronnie and, and you know, going to lunch with him. And Ronnie said, Sean, anybody can get into a deal. Anybody can get into the real estate deal. He goes, find out getting into the deal. You could always figure out one way to get in the really the true is figuring out how to get out. And if I was anybody, if I was to recommend it to anybody in my world, we always figure out two ways to get out of a deal. And whether that, whether that's to sell that property or rent that property until the market comes back and really that, you know, when you go and you leverage money and you go to private equity guys to raise capital for real estate investments, they typically want to know what the rental value is at that property.
Be. Cuz if all else goes, if all else goes sideways and they had to re-rent that property, you know, what is it worth? And can we cover our expenses? Can we cover the expense that we invested in it? So shocking. Why most banks won't lend on a vacant piece of land? Cuz there is no, there is no value on it unless it's in the middle of the city where they can rent it as a parking lot.
It's 10 X house selling secrets. We're actually blowing up the billion dollar blind spot. Year for years, you either hired an agent or you sold a house on your own. And most of the time when you sell it on your own, you leave money on the table like five to 10% on the table. What I'm showing you in the book and tennis house, selling secrets, where we empower the homeowners to sell their house themselves or save thousands of dollars without pay in the realtor. We not paying a commission, it was on an Amazon best seller, number five best seller and 14 hours on Amazon. We didn't advertise it. We didn't market it. It's just that the message had to be heard. That's a huge blind spot in the market. We're gonna be pushing on that going into next year. Just keep it campaign around for us. But if you're thinking of doing something with your piece of real estate, the next 24 months or 12 months for that matter, give me a call. You can get me and also you can check out our link tree. That's on the bottom of this PO podcast. Look forward to seeing the other side, Sean shall your friend, your neighbor, your real estate expert. And I'll talk to you soon.
Thank you for listening. Please feel free to comment and share this podcast to learn more about Sean T chais go to www.link tree.com back slash Shawn T shall.
